Our in-house Research team provides key highlights from all the action in Europe overnight: EU negotiated wages hit a new record level, but rate cuts are still expected in December. UK inflation increases, supporting the BoE’s cautious approach to further cuts.

The US election is done and President Trump will return on 20 January 2025. Although unpredictable by nature, we expect US yields to be higher and markets overall more volatile.

Fund to focus on providing investors with a monthly income solution while managing interest rate risk.

“There was a little girl, who had a little curl, right in the middle of her forehead. When she was good, she was very, very good, but when she was bad, she was horrid.”

Incredible moves in pricing suggest shallow liquidity (most likely) or a just a faint risk of a serious problem. RBA will watch and wait.

- The early signs are that the RBA is more likely than not to raise rates in August. We expect rate cuts in early 2025. - The CPI print was disappointingly high. The RBA is more likely than not to raise rates in August. - The decision is not yet set in stone, as future data (2Q CPI) could change things. However, we expect the tax cuts starting 1 July will also start to show in liaison. - The underlying economy is under pressure and rate hikes will only add to that. Rate cuts are likely to come in early 2025.

The January labour force data was, superficially, terrible. Following a poor result last month (-65.1K printed, revised to -62.7K) there was some hope that there would be an improvement in the January data released on Thursday. There was not. The economy added an anaemic 0.5K jobs and the unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.1%. The hours worked dropped 2.5%.